Welcome to The Arden Letter

A newsletter about building as the West, while learning from China

14 hrs ago • Nicolas Colin

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July 2026

The Beginning of the End for Big AI

Local models, broken pricing, and the slow shift from centralised frontier labs to controlled systems at the edge

Jul 2 • Nicolas Colin

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April 2026

The Year 2014 and the Origins of Our Time

Six threads born in 2014 have since converged into the world we now inhabit

Apr 19 • Nicolas Colin

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The Overflow Mechanism

How the dollar built Silicon Valley and why no one else can replicate it

Apr 6 • Nicolas Colin

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March 2026

What Harry Sonneborn Would Tell Sam Altman

OpenAI has a story. What it needs is a mechanism.

Mar 22 • Nicolas Colin

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The 1979 Playbook

A late-cycle shock is landing on a late-cycle economy

Mar 8 • Nicolas Colin

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February 2026

Late-Cycle Investment Theory: Winter 2025–2026 in 10 Snapshots

From stagflation signals to the electrostate, ten snapshots of a world order under strain

Feb 22 • Nicolas Colin

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The Epstein Files Tell the Institutional Story of Our Time

Institutional exhaustion and late-cycle hubris turn dormant scandals into tools of demolition

Feb 9 • Nicolas Colin

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January 2026

A Brief History of the Global Economy: 1908–2026

Technological revolutions have shaped the global economy—and continue to do so

Jan 26 • Nicolas Colin

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Wealth Always Hits a Limit

Even in the AI era, accumulated wealth will meet its limits through currency, consumption…and politics

Jan 12 • Nicolas Colin

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December 2025

10 Essays That Defined "Drift Signal" in 2025

How power, capital, and industry have been shifting this year

Dec 31, 2025 • Nicolas Colin

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10 Ways to Think About China

China is optimised for survival, not efficiency

Dec 14, 2025 • Nicolas Colin

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